The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Rasmussen Reports

Democrats Maintain a Slight Advantage for the New Hampshire Senate

Rasmussen Reports, 9/10 – 9/11

New Hampshire Senate

  • Jeanne Shaheen – Democrat – 48%
  • Scott Brown – Republican – 42%
  • Other – 5%
  • Undecided – 5%

The Democrats continue to lead in New Hampshire, but their lead is dwindling and the incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will need to gain some ground if she wants to maintain her lead over her Republican challenger, Scott Brown. The most recent poll was conducted by Rasmussen Reports and has a margin of error of 4%. Currently, Shaheen has secured 48%, her opponent has 42%, 5% like a different candidate, and 5% of voters were undecided.

49% of voters were male, 51% female, 23% were aged 18-39, 57% were 40-64, and 19% were over the age of 65, 95% were white and 5% were non-white, and 30% of the voters identified as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 43% identified with a different party. The only demographical statistic that is worth mentioning is the 95% white vote. Generally, the Democrats are associated with minorities, but in the case of New Hampshire, Shaheen is winning the polls with white voters.

55% of the voters approve of Shaheen and 42% disapprove of her, while 44% approve of Brown and 42% disapprove of him. Only 1% of the voters have never heard of either candidate. This means that they both have name recognition and that the polls represent a much more accurate picture than a typical political poll would. Voters were equally acknowledged both candidates and neither candidate suffered poor approval ratings due to a lack of name recognition. Sheehan won the New Hampshire Senate race in 2008. Previously, she was governor of the state.

Overall, 86% of the voters claimed that they were certain to vote and 14% said that they weren’t. This race is far from determined and it is likely that either candidate could exchange the lead as the election approaches.

Photo credit: now.dartmouth.edu

Democrats Hold a Decisive Lead in the Hawaii Senate Race

Rasmussen Reports, 9/9 – 9/10

Hawaii Senate

  • Brian Schatz – Democrat – 60%
  • Campbell Cavasso – Republican – 28%
  • Other – 6%
  • Undecided – 7%

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, the Democrats currently hold a two-to-one lead over the Republicans for the Hawaii Senate. The poll had a margin of error of 4%. The Democrat, Brian Schatz has secured 60% of the vote, while his Republican opponent, Campbell Cavasso has 28%. Cavasso has a lot of work ahead of him if he wants to climb back and try to pose a threat to Schatz.

In terms of demographics, 51% of voters were male, 49% female, 21% of voters were aged 18-39, 57% were 40-64, and 22% were 65+, 47% were white, while 53% were non-white, and 21% identified as Republican, 45% as Democrat, and 34% as another party. For Hawaii, these demographics are common and demonstrate no statistical anomalies.

Schatz also had superior approval ratings and overall name recognition. He achieved a favorability rating of 63% and a disapproval rating of only 29%. Cavasso’s approval rating was 30% and his disapproval rating was 21%. However, only 3% of voters had never heard of Schatz, while 36% of voters had never heard of Cavasso. Cavasso will have to establish his name amongst the voters if he wants to try and stage a comeback, a feat that looks nearly impossible given the current climate and his position in the polls.

86% of voters claimed that they were certain to vote in an election, while 14% said that they wouldn’t vote. Unlike other states, 59% of Hawaiians view President Barack Obama favorably and only 39% disapprove of the job that he has done. Hawaii is often considered a safe state for the Democrats and it looks likely that they will continue to maintain their foothold on the island.

Photo credit: The Election Project