The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: Republican Primaries

Coup: Tea Party Favorite Rand Paul Leads Second Straight National Republican Primary Poll

CNN, 5/29-6/1

  • Paul: 14
  • Bush: 12
  • Huckabee: 11
  • Ryan: 10
  • Cruz: 9
  • Christie: 8
  • Rubio: 8
  • Perry: 6
  • Walker: 5
  • Santorum: 4

We have seen candidates like Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee lead the national Republican nomination polls, but it’s Tea Party favorite Rand Paul who leads a new CNN poll, the second straight poll in which the Kentucky Senator has found himself in first.

According to the poll, conducted between May 29 and June 1, sampling 452 adults, Paul leads the rest of the Republican pack with 14 percent of the vote. That’s around the same as his 15 percent in a Washington Post poll released in April and 14 percent in a Fox News poll before that.

Right on his heels is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 12 percent. Bush has now seen 12-14 percent in five straight polls after polling mostly in single digits to start the year.

Right behind Bush is another former governor, Fox News host Mike Huckabee. Huckabee received 11 percent in this poll after leading most polls to start the year.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan was the only other candidate to finish in double-digits, claiming 10 percent of the vote. That’s a slight dip from the 12 percent he had seen in four of the last five polls.

Paul’s Tea Party ally, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, finished with 9 percent of the vote. Cruz had seen 4-7 percent in the last five polls so this is actually welcome news for the Canadian-born lawmaker.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Florida Senator Marco Rubio tied with 8 percent apiece. Christie has seen 8-9 percent in three straight polls while Rubio has now seen 6-8 percent in seven straight.

Texas Governor Rick Perry finished with 6 percent, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received 5 percent, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum garnered 4 percent.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)

Mike Huckabee Leads Another GOP Primary Race as Bush, Paul Drop: New Poll

PPP, 5/22-5/27
Oregon GOP

  • Huckabee: 21
  • Cruz: 16
  • Paul: 15
  • Bush: 15
  • Christie: 12
  • Rubio: 4
  • Ryan: 3
  • Walker: 3
  • Santorum: 2

Watching media coverage of the 2016 Republican horserace would have you believe the race is between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, and occasionally the slumping Chris Christie. The numbers paint a different story as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack in many states, now including Oregon.

A new PPP poll, conducted between May 22 and May 27, sampling 375 Republican primary voters, found that Fox News host Mike Huckabee leads the state’s primary race by a solid five-point margin.

Huckabee’s strength is among the party’s moderate and “somewhat conservative” wings. Huckabee is polling 21 percent among moderates and 25 percent among voters who identify as “somewhat conservative” but is also in solid standing with the party’s very conservative wing at 19 percent. No other candidate has that kind of support among all three of the party’s main three demographics.

Coming in second is the conservative darling, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, with 16 percent of the vote. Cruz is the strongest candidate among Oregon’s “very conservative” voters, polling at 27 percent. He’s only at 11 percent among moderates, however.

Tied for third are moderate former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and conservative Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Paul has fallen well behind Cruz among Oregon conservatives, only polling at 14 percent among very conservative voters and 12 percent among moderates.

Bush, on the other hand, is the strongest candidate among moderate voters, polling at 26 percent, but is not very popular with very conservative voters at just 8 percent.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is the only other candidate to poll in the double-digits, finishing with 12 percent. Christie, a former moderate favorite, is only polling 12 percent among moderate voters and a mere 7 percent among very conservative voters.

Regardless of who you support, the numbers in Oregon and most other states don’t seem to support the 2016 narrative that the media is trying to paint with the seldom-discussed Mike Huckabee looking very strong in Iowa and beyond.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)