The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: republican

Kentucky Senate: McConnell Increases His Lead over Grimes

Rasmussen Reports, 10/15 – 10/16

Kentucky Senate

  • Mitch McConnell – Republican – 52%
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes – Democrat – 44%
  • Other – 4%
  • Undecided – 5%

Rasmussen Reports latest poll for the Kentucky Senate has revealed that Republican Mitch McConnell has slightly increased his lead over his Democrat challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes. The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. McConnell secured 52 percent of the vote, while Grimes mustered only 44 percent.

News in recent weeks had suggested that McConnell was struggling to defeat Grimes. His supporters immediately piled in with donations. On top of this, Grimes committed several blunders when she refused to admit whether or not she voted for President Obama, she was caught lying about her support for the coal industry, and she attacked McConnell for his support on an immigration reform bill that granted amnesty to 3 million illegal aliens.

A poll by Survey USA from earlier in October showed Grimes in the lead with 46 percent of the vote to McConnell’s 44 percent. Many questioned whether the results of this poll were legitimate as the results were not consistent with any other polls conducted to date.

49 percent of the voters view McConnell as a favorable candidate, while only 46 say the same about Grimes. Both candidates have equal name recognition heading into the election.

Overall, the debate between the two candidates didn’t solve a whole lot. Grimes alienated herself through her refusal to answer basic questions and McConnell’s platform is exactly what you would expect from an older Republican senator.

Photo credit: Insider Louisville.

Illinois Governor: Votes Favor Quinn, but Voters Prefer Rauner’s Business Background

Sun Times, 10/8

Illinois Governor

  • Pat Quinn – Democrat – 44.5%
  • Bruce Rauner – Republican – 41%

The Sun Times newest poll has added to the drama that has become the Illinois Governor race. The election is dead-even despite the Democrat Pat Quinn’s lead over his Republican challenger Bruce Rauner. Quinn netted 44.5 percent of the vote, to Rauner’s 41 percent. However, these numbers were well within the polls 3 percent margin of error.

In the previous month, Quinn was up by 3 points in a CBS News poll, and 2 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll. He has been consistent in the polls, but voters have revealed that they trust Rauner more.

When asked who they would trust more to deal with reform, 37.38 percent chose Rauner and only 26.12 percent Quinn. This is odd considering the Republicans are not usually known as reformers.

41.65 percent of voters also preferred Rauner’s business background to the 24.11 percent that chose Quinn’s political background. 25.7 percent believed that both backgrounds are in important, and 8.53 percent believed that neither background is important.

Voters are interested in both candidates, so much so, that 63.85 percent of them claimed that they will watch the debate.

The two candidates have resulted to dirty tactics throughout the election. Quinn has attacked Rauner’s business background which has included bankruptcies, lawsuits, and criminal investigations, while Rauner has called Quinn a career politician who is too-cozy, has ties to heavy power brokers, and who is corrupt.

“This is about what kind of values and leadership will be in the Governor’s Office for the next four years — will the people of Illinois have a champion who makes the tough decisions and fights for the middle class like Gov. Quinn does? Or will they have someone like billionaire Bruce Rauner who fights for himself and his wealthy friends at the expense of everyone else? People have a very clear choice to make,” said Brooke Anderson a spokeswoman for Quinn.

“We’ve always expected the polls to bounce back and forth, but it’s clear voters are ready for a clean break from twelve years of failure under Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn,” said Mike Schrimpf, a Rauner spokesman.

Photo credit: Gapers Block

Democrats Hold a Slight Lead for the Michigan Senate

Rasmussen Reports, 9/17 – 9/18

Michigan Senate

  • Gary Peters – Democrat – 41%
  • Terri Lynn – Republican – 39%
  • Other – 5%
  • Undecided – 15%

Rasmussen Reports has just released a poll showing the latest results for the Michigan Senate race between the Democrat Gary Peters and the Republican Terri Lynn. 750 likely Michigan voters were asked who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The margin of error for this poll was 4%. Peters secured 41% of the votes, while Lynn was close behind with 39%. 5% of the voters would vote for a different candidate and 15% were undecided.

The demographics for this poll were as follows: 47% were male and 53% female, 25% were aged 18-39, 51% were aged 40-64, and 24% were over the age of 65, 82% were white, 13% black, and 5% were of a different ethnicity, and 30% identified as Republican, 36% as Democrat, and 34% as a different party all together.

Lynn achieved an approval rating of 45% and a disapproval rating of 44%, while Peter’s approval rating was 43% and his disapproval rating was 40%. 4% of the voters have never heard of Lynn and 8% of the voters have never heard of Peters. Both candidates have similar approval ratings and the name recognition is not that far off.

If either candidate wants to pull ahead in this election, they will need to convince the undecided voters. Statistically, 15% of the voters were undecided and this is a rather large number. If either candidate can make a dent into this statistic, they may be able to siphon votes from their opponent and secure a victory in this very tight election.

Photo credit: Huffington Post

Wisconsin Governor Update: Walker (48%) vs. Burke (46%)

Rasmussen Reports, 15/9 – 16/9

Wisconsin Governor

  • Scott Walker – Republican – 48%
  • Mary Burke – Democrat – 46%
  • Other – 3%
  • Undecided – 3%

Rasmussen Reports has released an update for the Wisconsin Governor race and the results are close. The poll asked 750 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The margin of error for this poll was 4%. Currently, the Republican Scott Walker has 48% of the votes, while his Democrat challenger Mary Burke has 46%. 3% of voters would vote for another candidate and an additional 3% are undecided.

The demographics for this poll were standard. 49% of voters were male and 51% were female, 26% were aged 18-39, 52% were 40-64, and 22% were over the age of 65, 90% were white and 10% were non-white, and 33% identified as Republican, 36% as Democrat, and 31% as a different party.

Walker’s current approval ratings are 51% and his disapproval ratings are 46%. Burke’s approval ratings are slightly lower; she scored 47% and 43% respectively.  4% of the voters have never heard of Burke and only 1% of them have not heard of Walker. Yet, Walker has begun to slip in the polls. In the past, Wisconsin was a state that was leaning towards the Republican Party. That is not the case anymore. In the most recent poll, the state is now considered a toss-up and political scientists are unsure of whether Walker can still be deemed a favorite to win. A CBS News poll from August had Walker at a +4, an early September WeAskAmerica poll had Burke at a +4, and a mid-September Marquette University poll had Walker at a +3. This is a tight race, but really, it is Walker who has slipped the most. Months ago, Walker held a commanding +7 and a +16 lead.

Photo credit: Politico

New Hampshire Governor: Hassan (51%), Havenstein (40%)

Rasmussen Reports, 9/10 – 9/11

New Hampshire Governor

  • Maggie Hassan – Democrat – 51%
  • Walt Havenstein – Republican – 40%
  • Other – 3%
  • Undecided – 6%

The most recent poll for the New Hampshire Governor has been released by Rasmussen Reports. The poll asked 750 likely New Hampshire voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The margin of error for the poll was 4%. The Democrat Maggie Hassan picked up 51% of the vote, while her Republican challenger Walt Havenstein had only 40%. In addition, 3% of voters backed a different candidate and 6% were undecided.

49% of voters were male and 51% were female, 23% were aged 18-39, 57% were 40-64, and 19% were 65 or over, 95% were white and 5% were non-white, and 30% identified as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 43% as a different party altogether. Statistically speaking, the demographics for this poll were common for New Hampshire and there were no unusual numbers to report.

Hassan had an approval rating of 57% and a disapproval rating of 38%, while her opponent Havenstein had an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 33%. Considering that Hassan is the incumbent, has a superior approval rating, and holds a strong lead in the polls, it is safe to say that she has this election locked down so long as she sticks to a sensible platform that appeals to the moderates. 13% of the voters have never heard of Havenstein, while 1% of them have never heard of Hassan. This is another statistical advantage for Hassan.

Voters also trusted Hassan more than Havenstein on several key issues, such as, government spending, taxes, social policy, and corruption. To date, her platform has been effective and the results are already visible, as can be seen in the polls.

Photo credit: Election Projection

Democrats Maintain a Slight Advantage for the New Hampshire Senate

Rasmussen Reports, 9/10 – 9/11

New Hampshire Senate

  • Jeanne Shaheen – Democrat – 48%
  • Scott Brown – Republican – 42%
  • Other – 5%
  • Undecided – 5%

The Democrats continue to lead in New Hampshire, but their lead is dwindling and the incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will need to gain some ground if she wants to maintain her lead over her Republican challenger, Scott Brown. The most recent poll was conducted by Rasmussen Reports and has a margin of error of 4%. Currently, Shaheen has secured 48%, her opponent has 42%, 5% like a different candidate, and 5% of voters were undecided.

49% of voters were male, 51% female, 23% were aged 18-39, 57% were 40-64, and 19% were over the age of 65, 95% were white and 5% were non-white, and 30% of the voters identified as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 43% identified with a different party. The only demographical statistic that is worth mentioning is the 95% white vote. Generally, the Democrats are associated with minorities, but in the case of New Hampshire, Shaheen is winning the polls with white voters.

55% of the voters approve of Shaheen and 42% disapprove of her, while 44% approve of Brown and 42% disapprove of him. Only 1% of the voters have never heard of either candidate. This means that they both have name recognition and that the polls represent a much more accurate picture than a typical political poll would. Voters were equally acknowledged both candidates and neither candidate suffered poor approval ratings due to a lack of name recognition. Sheehan won the New Hampshire Senate race in 2008. Previously, she was governor of the state.

Overall, 86% of the voters claimed that they were certain to vote and 14% said that they weren’t. This race is far from determined and it is likely that either candidate could exchange the lead as the election approaches.

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Colorado Governor Race between Hickenlooper and Beauprez Remains Dead Even

Rasmussen Reports, 9/3 – 9/4

Colorado Governor

  • Bob Beauprez – Republican – 45%
  • John Hickenlooper – Democrat – 44%
  • Other – 4%
  • Undecided – 7%

The Colorado Governor’s race is currently a stalemate between the Democrat John Hickenlooper and his Republican challenger Bob Beauprez. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll has revealed that Beauprez has 45% of the vote, while Hickenlooper has 44%. The poll asked 800 likely voters throughout Colorado who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The poll had a margin of error of 4%. In terms of demographics, 48% of the voters were male, 52% female, 27% were aged 18-39, 53% were 40-64, and 21% were 65+, 79% of voters were white, and 31% of voters identified as Republican, 32% as Democrat, and 37% as another party.

The incumbent, Hickenlooper had an approval rating of 48% and a disapproval rating of 47%, while his opponent achieved a 47% and 34%. The name recognition advantage belongs to Hickenlooper. 1% of voters have never heard of him, while 10% of voters have never heard of Beauprez. Still, Beauprez has superior approval ratings and he has the ability to influence new voters who have no opinion of him as of yet. This is a clear advantage in a campaign like this that is so close and unpredictable. If he can sway new voters, he may be able to beat Hickenlooper on Election Day.

Voters are split on whom to trust more with government spending. Beauprez scored a 41%, while Hickenlooper secured 40% of the vote. For social issues, Hickenlooper secured 44% of the vote, his opponent only achieved 39% and 17% were unsure. On the topic of accountability, both candidates scored a 39%.

Hickenlooper is fighting to be re-elected and it is possible that he will seek to implement a popular decision to sway votes. His ability to do this provides him with a major advantage over his opponent who can only promise to do things if he is elected.

Photo credit: The Denver Post

Corbett Continues to Sink against Wolf in Pennsylvania Governor’s Race

Franklin & Marshall, 8/18 – 8/25

Pennsylvania Governor

  • Tom Wolf – Democrat – 49%
  • Tom Corbett – Republican – 24%
  • Undecided – 25%
  • Other – 1%

A recent poll analyzing the race for Pennsylvania Governor by Franklin & Marshall has revealed that Democrat Tom Wolf holds a massive lead against his Republican opponent and current incumbent, Tom Corbett. 520 registered Pennsylvania voters were asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for. Wolf obtained 49% of the votes, Corbett, 24%, while 25% were undecided and an additional 1% voted for the “other” option. Polls have favored Wolf for a long time. Since May 2014, Wolf has maintained a steady double digit lead. In most cases, he has stayed above the +20 threshold, only dipping below it briefly in July.

The data also demonstrated that as of August 2014, only 27% of the voters believe that Pennsylvania is headed in the right direction. For comparison the approval ratings for August 2006 were 50%, September 2006, 52%, August 2010, 30%, and September 2010, 31%. In addition to this, Corbett’s approval rating is a measly 24%. The most important issue for voters was education reform, something that Corbett gutted in his term. Previously, the economy was regarded as the most important issue, but with the recession coming to an end and families finding some level of economic stability, voter’s priorities have changed.

Wolf should be able to coast to victory in the upcoming election. His opponent has been caught in scandals and most voters feel that his term was damaging to the state. “What has changed since June?” G. Terry Madonna, the director of the poll asked. “Has Tom Corbett gotten his agenda? No… This race is where it was in June because Corbett hasn’t been able to change the way voters feel about him.”

Photo credit: Pennlive

Quinnipiac University Polls Finds Obama Least Popular President since WWII

It is not surprising to see that President Barack Obama is the least popular President in modern times. Whether or not you like Obama, his Congress has been largely, ineffective, the country has seen little growth, and he has failed to follow through on many of his promises. While an equal portion of his failures can be blamed on the Republicans for their tactics in Congress, much of the blame will fall on Obama as he is the President.

A recent Quinnipiac University Poll has revealed that Obama is ranked first as the worst President since WWII. How do the numbers look? 33% of voters selected Obama, while another 28% chose President George W. Bush. Who was voted the best? President Ronald Reagan with 35% of the votes, President Bill Clinton with 18% and John F. Kennedy with 15%. How did Obama fare? He received only 8% of the votes for best President since WWII.

Looking further into the data, 39% of voters believed that Obama has been better than Bush, while another 40% say that he is worse. Statistically, men tend to believe that Obama has been worse while women tend to believe that he has been better. On typical partisan lines, the Democrats believe that he has been better by Bush, by a large margin, while the Republicans feel that he has been worse, by a large margin.

“Over the span of 69 years of American history and 12 presidencies, President Barack Obama finds himself with President George W. Bush at the bottom of the popularity barrel,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The poll also asked whether or not Mitt Romney would have been a better President. Most voters, with hindsight, voted yes.

Obama scored poorly on several key issues such as:

  • Negative 40 – 55 percent for handling the economy;
  • Negative 37 – 57 percent for foreign policy;
  • Negative 40 – 58 percent for health care;
  • 50 – 40 percent for the environment, and
  • Negative 44 – 51 percent for terrorism.

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