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Congressional Control: Voters Believe the Republicans Are Poised for Big Gains in This Year’s Elections

Rasmussen Reports, 10/29 – 10/30

Congressional Control

A new Rasmussen Reports poll gauged voter opinion on who they believe will control the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate following this year’s elections.

How likely is that Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives this November?

  • Very likely – 12%
  • Somewhat likely – 22%
  • Not very likely – 26%
  • Not at all likely – 25%
  • Undecided – 14%

Even though most of the failures attributed to the current Congress can be blamed on the Republicans, both parties suffer from petty partisan politics that have led to a massive breakdown of relations in Congress and its inability to accomplish anything of value. It is not surprising that the majority of voters, 51 percent, believe that the Democrats will concede even more control of the House of Representatives to their opponents.

How likely is that Republicans will win a majority in the Senate this November?

  • Very likely – 22%
  • Somewhat likely – 40%
  • Not very likely – 20%
  • Not at all likely – 4%
  • Undecided – 15%

The results of this question are even less surprising. The Democrats currently control the U.S. Senate with 53 seats to the Republican’s 45. However, the lack of any meaningful legislation might convince voters to try a Republican Senate, even if it has no potential to benefit them at all. The average voter is fed up of the current political climate.

If Democrats win control of Congress, will there be a noticeable change in the lives of most Americans?

  • Yes – 51%
  • No – 32%
  • Undecided – 17%

Voters believe the Democrats are the better party, but they demonstrate a willingness to vote Republican, it’s paradoxical. Both parties have their specific platforms, but the Democrats tend to offer a neutral platform for the majority, while the Republicans focus on policies that benefit the minority of the population.

2014 Senate Poll Updates: The Latest Poll Numbers For Every One of the 36 Senate Races and Full Senate Scorecard

CBS News, New York Times, and YouGov have just released what is essentially a “poll dump,” releasing updated poll numbers for every single one of the nation’s 33 senate races. With the November midterm elections approaching, let’s take a look at the latest news from each race.

In Alaska, Republican challenger Dan Sullivan now leads incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich by 6 percent after leading him by 2 percent in a recent Rasmussen poll.

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton leads incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor by 4 percent while recent NBC News and CNN polls have Cotton up by 2-5 percent.

In Colorado, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall leads Republican Cory Gardner by 3 percent in the latest CBS/NYT poll while leading him by 2-6 percent in recent NBC News and Rasmussen polls.

In Georgia, this poll has Republican nominee David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 6 percent. There’s some conflicting information out of Georgia as a Survey USA poll has Purdue leading by 3 while a WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer poll has Nunn up by 2.

In Iowa, Democratic nominee Bruce Braley has taken a 2-point lead over Republican Joni Ernst while a Loras College poll has Braley leading by 4 percent.

In Kentucky, incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by 5 percent. CNN, Rasmussen, and NBC News also have McConnell leading by 4-8 percent.

In Michigan, the CBS/NYT poll has Republican Terri Lynn Land leading by 1 percent while a Mitchell Research Poll has Democrat Gary Peters up by 2 percent and a PPP poll has him leading by 5 percent.

In North Carolina, the CBS/NYT poll has Republican challenger Thom Tillis leading incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan by 1 percent while a USA Today poll has Hagan up by 2 and a PPP poll has her up by 1

In New Hampshire, incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads Republican challenger Scott Brown by 6 percent while a recent WMUR poll has her up by 2.

In Minnesota, incumbent Democrat Al Franken leads Republican Mike McFadden by 8 percent, exactly as we’ve seen in every other August-September poll out of Minnesota.

In Louisiana, Republican Bill Cassidy leads Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu and fellow Republican Rob Maness in the state’s open primary by 2 percent. The top two vote-getters, presumably Cassidy and Landrieu, will then face off in a general election in December. Cassidy leads Landrieu in head-to-head polls by 1-3 percent.

In Kansas, where Democrat Chad Taylor has pulled out of the race, independent candidate Greg Orman’s support has doubled and he only only trails Republican Senator Pat Roberts by 1 percent with Taylor still pulling in 10 percent. With Taylor out, it appears that Orman has a strong chance to win this one as he leads a head-to-head PPP poll against Roberts by 10 percent.

In Illinois, incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin leads Republican Jim Oberweis by 12 percent and essentially has the race sewn up.

In Montana, Republican Steve Daines is running away from Democrat Amanda Curtis, leading by a whopping 18 percent. A Rasmussen poll also has him up by 20.

In New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Jeff Bell by 15 percent and has his race sewn up as well.

In Oregon, incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby by 12 percent, similar to other polls, and looks like an overwhelming favorite to win re-election.

In Virginia, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie by 12 percent though other polls have shown him up by as much as 22-23.

In West Virginia, Republican Shelley Moore Capito leads Democrat Natalie Tennant by 23 percent and is essentially a lock to win.

In South Dakota’s three-way race, Republican Mike Rounds leads Democrat Rick Weiland and independent candidate Larry Pressler by 14 percent, similar to other numbers we’ve seen.

In Delaware, Democrat Chris Coons leads Republican Kevin Wade by 13 points and is basically a lock to win.

In Idaho, the race is pretty much over with incumbent Republican Jim Risch leading Democrat Nels Mitchell by 34 points.

In Massachusetts, the race is over before it started with Democrat Ed Markey leading Republican Frank Addivinola by 25 percent.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins is running away from Democrat Shenna Bellows with a whopping 32-point lead.

In Mississippi, incumbent Senator Thad Cochran leads Democratic challenger Travis Childers by 15 percent after eking out a primary win.

In Nebraska, Republican Ben Sasse has the race sewn up as he leads Democrat David Domina by 26 percent.

In New Mexico, incumbent Democrat Tom Udall has a strong 18 percent lead over Republican Allen Weh.

In Oklahoma, Republican James Lankford expects a huge landslide over Democrat Connie Johnson as he leads her by 33 percent while incumbent senior Senator Jim Inhofe leads Democrat Matt Silverstein by 32 percent.

In Rhode Island, incumbent Democrat Jack Reed should easily be re-elected as he leads Republican Mark Zaccaria by 20 points.

In South Carolina, incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham has a strong 13-point advantage over Democrat Brad Hutto while incumbent junior Senator Tim Scott leads Democrat Joyce Dickerson by 21 percent.

In Tennessee, incumbent Republican Lamar Alexander has a strong 15 percent lead over Democrat Gordon Ball.

In Texas, incumbent Republican John Cornyn leads Democrat David Alameel by 21 percent.

In Wyoming, incumbent Republican Mike Enzi has an unreal 45 percent lead over Democratic “challenger” Charlie Hardy.

In Hawaii, incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz leads Republican Cam Cavasso by 35 percent.

In Alabama, incumbent Senator Jeff Sessions is running unopposed.

Senate Scorecard:

Of 36 seats, the Democrats will almost certainly win 10 seats.

Of 36 seats, the Republicans will almost certainly win 15 seats.

That leaves eleven “toss-up” seats.

Democrats look poised to win New Hampshire, Colorado, Michigan.

Republicans look poised to win Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman has vowed to caucus with whichever party is in the majority.

That’s 13 for the Democrats, 19 for Republicans, and one independent “swing vote”.

The three big question marks are in North Carolina where poll results range from Tillis +5 to Hagan +4, in Iowa where we saw three straight ties before Braley took a slight lead, and Alaska where Begich led nearly every poll before two August polls showed Sullivan surging ahead. Louisiana is technically a toss-up but Landrieu’s chances are looking increasingly poor.

Democrats are defending 21 seats while Republicans are defending 15 seats.

That puts the Senate at 50 Democrats, 47 Republicans and three tossups.