The latest on the presidential horse race.

Tag Archives: South Carolina

Clinton Decimates Sanders in the South Carolina Primary

Residents of South Carolina flocked to the polls today to vote in the Democratic primary. Hillary Clinton came out strong, beating Bernie Sanders by a margin of 3 to 1.

South Carolina Results

  • Hillary Clinton – 73.5%
  • Bernie Sanders – 26%

Most experts predicted a massive Clinton victory in South Carolina, similar to how Sanders annihilated her in New Hampshire. However, the timing of this victory is what’s important and it could lead to substantial momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Clinton has polling better as of late and Sanders appears to be caught in a rut.

If Sanders wants to retake the lead, he will need to push harder and attract voters in states that he is less popular in. Super Tuesday will be make or break for his campaign and a poor showing will result in his demise.

Still, the Democrats have a tough decision to make. Historically, Clinton hasn’t matched up well against Donald Trump, whereas, Sanders has. If Clinton leads the party into the 2016 election, she may get stonewalled by Trump who is seen as a more aggressive, but interesting candidate, who is willing to speak his mind.

Photo credit: CBC.

South Carolina: Trump Falters, Clinton Decimates

According to the latest South Carolina poll by NBC/WSJ/Marist, Donald Trump continues to lead the Republicans, but his lead is slipping and Hillary Clinton continues to dominate Bernie Sanders.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 60%
  • Bernie Sanders – 32%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 28%
  • Ted Cruz – 23%
  • Marco Rubio – 15%
  • Jeb Bush – 13%
  • John Kasich – 9%

Many experts predict that Clinton will win South Carolina. This is a state where she can play up her southern drawl, appeal to the voters on a personal level, and work her establishment magic. African-American voters continue to stand by her, despite the fact that she hasn’t ever lifted a finger for their community.

On the other hand, Sanders is an outsider. The socialist term is scary for South Carolina Democrats and they see Clinton as a safer choice that will better represent their interests.

Trump still holds a decent lead in the state, but his numbers have been slipping over the last few days and Ted Cruz is making a push. Cruz benefits from the religious vote, an while he isn’t an establishment candidate, he is resonating with South Carolina voters, playing up the southern accent and painting himself as the warrior of the Constitution.

The other true establishment candidates, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush are struggling to secure support ahead of the primary. If they lose in South Carolina, their chances to win the nomination will be all but zero. However, they will continue to campaign solely on the large war chests they have amassed through campaign donations.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore / CC BY-SA 2.0.

Trump and Clinton Continue Dominance in South Carolina

The latest CNN/ORC polls for South Carolina have revealed that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are at the top of their respective parties.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 56%
  • Bernie Sanders – 38%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 38%
  • Ted Cruz – 22%
  • Marco Rubio – 14%
  • Jeb Bush – 10%

Clinton should be able to win South Carolina without any issues. For Bernie Sanders, the best he can do in South Carolina is minimize the margin of victory for Clinton. Currently, she is expected to win by over 20 percent, but if Sanders can reduce that to something lower than 10 percent, that would be a major victory for him.

For whatever reason, African-Americans flock to Clinton despite the fact that both her and her husband have done very little to advance their community. None of Clinton’s policies are especially helpful to African-Americans, but still, they continue to adore her and treat her as if she is a champion of their cause.

For the Republicans, Trump is still the candidate to beat. Ted Cruz is slowly improving his situation, but he still has a long way to go and the religious angle will only carry him so far. During the most recent debate, Trump went on the offensive and criticized Jeb Bush for his ties to his brother. This may prove to be a risky move as South Carolinians tend to have a favorable opinion of the Bush family and are closely tied to the GOP establishment.

Photo credit: Gawker.

Trump and Clinton Increase the Gap in South Carolina

The latest poll by CBS News/YouGov shows that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are continuing to build their leads in South Carolina, ahead of the state’s upcoming primary.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 59%
  • Bernie Sanders – 40%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 42%
  • Ted Cruz – 20%
  • Marco Rubio – 15%
  • John Kasich – 9%
  • Jeb Bush / Ben Carson – 6%

Clinton is going to be tough for Bernie Sanders to beat in South Carolina. Even though Clinton hasn’t done anything for African-Americans in the state, they adore her and they will turn out in large numbers to vote for her.

Sanders will have to win over the African American vote over the next 13 days if he wants to close the gap and challenge Clinton for the state. He has been slowly collecting endorsements from various figures in the black community, but he has a long way to go before he can champion them as a large voting block for his campaign.

As for Trump, he continues to lead in South Carolina and that shouldn’t change, even if he says something controversial. Ted Cruz will continue to court religious voters, and he will have success in doing that, but Trump is appealing to average Americans in a way that other politicians have failed to do in this current election cycle.

Even though Trump is a billionaire, average Americans view him as a man of the people, whereas they see Cruz as creepy and as someone they cannot relate to.

Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush, are all lost candidates at this point and they are only holding on in hopes that both Trump and Cruz will fall apart. The fact that they continue to hang on in this election is helping Trump as they are spreading the vote so thin that Trump remains on top through most major polls and primaries.

Photo credit: People.

Trump and Clinton Dominate South Carolina

The latest polls by ARG for South Carolina have revealed that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are leading their respective parties.

Which Democratic candidate would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton – 65%
  • Bernie Sanders – 27%

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 35%
  • John Kasich – 15%
  • Marco Rubio – 14%
  • Ted Cruz – 12%
  • Jeb Bush – 10%

For Clinton, South Carolina is what New Hampshire was to Bernie Sanders. No one expects Sanders to win in South Carolina, and that will remain especially true if he continues to struggle to secure the African-American vote.

Clinton is the master at turning on her southern drawl to woo voters in areas with thick southern accents. For whatever reason, the African-American vote is in her grasp and she will likely pull out a large victory in South Carolina.

Sanders is desperately trying to win over African-American voters, but he is struggling to gain traction and South Carolina is more than likely a right off at this point. In theory, Sanders is a much more attractive candidate for the black community, but they continue to gravitate to Clinton, who has done virtually nothing for them in her entire political career.

For the Republicans, Trump is still the man to beat and he should score a decent victory in the state. Ted Cruz may be able to challenge Trump as he is tapping into the religiosity of voters and trying to win them over with his religious roots.

John Kasich is polling well after a decent showing in New Hampshire. However, it remains to be seen if he can continue to rise or if he is nothing but a flash in the pan.

Photo credit: The Gateway Pundit.

Trump Demolishes the Competition in South Carolina

Donald Trump is still the king of the Republican Party and his main challenger, Ted Cruz, performed poorly in the recent Augusta Chronicle poll for South Carolina.

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 32%
  • Ted Cruz – 18%
  • Jeb Bush – 13%
  • Marco Rubio – 11%
  • Ben Carson – 9%

The Republican nomination is a two candidate race between Trump and Cruz. However, when you look at the polling averages, it quickly becomes a one candidate race that is being dominated by Trump on all fronts. The odd poll will place Cruz ahead of Trump, but the statistical average tends to place him at the top of the party.

Cruz is a legitimate candidate in his own right, but he is struggling to endure the birther movement’s accusations. A Texas lawyer has launched a lawsuit against Cruz and Trump has promised to do the same if Cruz were to come closer to winning the nomination or if the Democrats plan to launch their own.

Jeb Bush performed better in this poll than he usually does, but his campaign efforts are still flat and voters are uninterested in voting in another member of the Bush dynasty. Marco Rubio stands a higher chance of getting elected than Bush does, and like Bush, Rubio is a member of the classic Republican establishment.

Photo credit: Trumps Stump 2016.

South Carolina: Cruz Edges Closer to Trump

The Augusta Chronicle released a new poll on Saturday that showcased how the various Republican candidates performed in South Carolina.

Which Republican candidate would you vote for?

  • Donald Trump – 28%
  • Ted Cruz – 21%
  • Marco Rubio – 12%
  • Ben Carson – 10%
  • Jeb Bush – 10%

The Republican Party polling averages have completely stabilized in the recent weeks. The current trends showcase Donald Trump leading in every poll, followed closely by Ted Cruz in second, Marco Rubio in third, and a tie for fourth between Jeb Bush and Ben Carson.

Trump has managed to maintain high levels of support despite his disastrous comments in recent weeks. Trump is working hard to maintain his current voter base and is looking to expand it into the right-leaning fringes of the Republican Party. It remains to be seen whether or not this strategy is a winning one, but most experts believe that it isn’t a sound longterm strategy.

Cruz has failed to capitalize on his opponents mistakes. He continues to challenge Trump, offering a viable replacement option. However, his platform is a more moderate version of Trumps and he will need to convince voters that he has more to offer if he wants to get nominated and run for president.

Rubio is patiently waiting in the wings for both Cruz and Trump to collapse. While this could happen, Rubio is running the risk of waiting too long and missing his opportunity. He is a far more intelligent candidate that is intellectually savvy and capable of winning over young voters, but he needs to act fast and start securing votes.

Photo credit: Cowgernation.com

Clinton Defeats Sanders in Iowa and South Carolina, Loses in New Hampshire

The latest round of Democratic primaries have been released by CBS News/YouGov. The surveys asked voters in Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire which candidate they would vote for.

Iowa

  • Hillary Clinton – 50%
  • Bernie Sanders – 44%

New Hampshire

  • Hillary Clinton – 45%
  • Bernie Sanders – 52%

South Carolina

  • Hillary Clinton – 72%
  • Bernie Sanders – 25%

Clinton managed to beat Sanders in two polls. Historically, Clinton has polled well against Sanders in South Carolina, while Iowa and New Hampshire have been much more even.

Clinton is the master of turning on her accent in specific states and trying to charm voters by appearing like one of them. This is extremely effective in states like South Carolina and Iowa where a prominent accent exists. On the other hand, Sanders doesn’t do anything like this and tries to be consistent in the way he acts throughout all of his campaign stops.

In New Hampshire, Sanders has been polling fairly well and it is one of the few states where he manages to defeat Clinton consistently. In the last week, he has climbed several polls and chipped away at Clinton’s growing lead. However, his massive loss in South Carolina was substantial and something work noting. If Sanders wants to defeat Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he will need to secure votes in states that he is less popular in. The easiest way for him to accomplish this is to show voters the legitimacy of his platform and his honest devotion to accomplishing his political goals.

Photo credit: People.

Polls: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

The latest poll for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have been released by CBS/YouGov. Ben Carson managed to tie in Iowa, while Donald Trump beat him in New Hampshire and South Carolina. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton took Iowa and South Carolina, but lost to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

Iowa

  • Ben Carson – 27%
  • Donald Trump – 27%
  • Ted Cruz – 12%
  • Marco Rubio – 9%
  • Hillary Clinton – 46%
  • Bernie Sanders – 43%

New Hampshire

  • Donald Trump – 38%
  • Ben Carson – 12%
  • Jeb Bush – 8%
  • Marco Rubio – 7%
  • Bernie Sanders – 54%
  • Hillary Clinton – 39%

South Carolina

  • Donald Trump – 40%
  • Ben Carson – 23%
  • Ted Cruz – 8%
  • Marco Rubio – 7%
  • Hillary Clinton – 68%
  • Bernie Sanders – 25%

Trump is solidifying himself as the main Republican candidate. Carson still appeals to radical and fringe voters, but Trump has managed to secure votes from the core Republican voting block. If he can maintain his popularity and appeal to voters, he will win the Republican nomination without any issues.

Clinton is starting to dominate Sanders. She seems to beat him in every state that matters and Sanders is only able to secure votes in states that are less important, like his home state of Vermont and in the case of these polls, New Hampshire. While Sanders has a more classically liberal platform, he needs to expose that platform to voters if he wants to stand any chance against the Clinton political machine.

Photo credit: The Hill.

Fox News Exit Poll Shows Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry Leading 2016 GOP Pack

While most of the polling last week focused on the midterms, Fox News conducted exit polls at the voting booths to get a sense of where “real” voters, i.e. those that actually vote as opposed to “likely voters,” stand on the 2016 presidential election. The results were somewhat surprising, especially given the media attention that likely candidates like Chris Christie and Rand Paul have received.

One thing to note is that national polling means very little once these candidates fall victim to the primary schedule. We all remember how well former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was doing in the national polls in 2008 only to see his campaign sputter after poor showings at the early primaries.

So let’s take a look at the early primary states and see what we can make of the data.

In Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee leads the pack with 18 percent. That’s not much of a surprise since Huckabee has led most of the polling out of Iowa and Huckabee won the caucus in 2008 with 34 percent of the vote.

The race is very close, however, with outgoing Texas Governor Rick Perry surging to 17 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 15 percent, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul at 14 percent, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 12.

In New Hampshire, the standings are more or less flipped. Bush leads the pack with 22 percent but Paul is right on his heels with 21 percent. Christie is at 15, Huckabee is at 10, and Perry is at just 4.

After New Hampshire we move to South Carolina, where Huckabee finds himself in the lead with 20 percent. Bush is second with 18 but Christie and Paul trail with 12 and Perry with 11.

So in the first three states, Huckabee appears to be very strong in two while Bush appears to have a shot at all three. Perry doesn’t figure to make much hay outside of Iowa, if that, and Christie doesn’t look likely to win any of the early contests.

While Iowa is rarely telling of who the eventual nominee will be, with Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum winning the state in 2008 and 2012, respectively, the winner of the New Hampshire primary has gone on to win the nomination in the last three election cycles. That could mean good news for Jeb Bush though it’s hard to see a polarizing candidate like Paul use a possible New Hampshire win to gain momentum in a lot of northern and western states.