Governor Races: Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin
Rasmussen Reports, 11/3
Are you ready to vote today? Rasmussen Reports has compiled a last minute assessment of the major governor races throughout the country.
In Colorado, Republican Bob Beauprez leads with 49 percent of the vote to John Hickenlooper’s 47 percent. The numbers are negligible and it is difficult to predict who will win in this state.
We wrote about Connecticut the other day and the numbers are still very similar. Democrat Dan Malloy is expected to receive 48 percent of the vote to Foley’s 47 percent.
What about Florida? Despite Republican Rick Scott’s reputation, he will head into Election Day tied with Charlie Crist with 47 percent of the vote.
Hawaii will likely be won by Democrat David Ige, who currently has 40 percent of the vote. His Republican opponent, Duke Aiona secured 39 percent.
Illinois is a tight race. Republican Bruce Rauner has 48 percent of the vote to Pat Quinn’s 47. This one is a toss-up and it is impossible to say what the results will be given the information at hand.
Maine is another toss-up state. Republican Paul LePage appears to have 41 percent of the vote to Mike Michaud’s 40 percent.
Massachusetts, a blue state, appears to be heading towards the red side. 48 percent of the voters prefer Republican Charlie Baker, while 46 percent like Martha Coakley.
In Michigan, Republican Rick Snyder currently has 49 percent of the vote to Mark Schauer’s 46 percent. The election could end up either way, but the current numbers clearly favor Snyder.
Wisconsin is another toss-up. Democrat Mary Burke leads with 49 percent to Scott Walker’s 48 percent. This poll is well within the margin of error and could swing either way.
Photo credit: Presentation Voice.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/29 – 10/30
- Dan Malloy – Democrat – 48%
- Tom Foley – Republican – 47%
- Other – 2%
- Undecided – 4%
Rasmussen Reports has released a political poll that analyzed the tight race for the Connecticut Governor. The poll asked 977 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The Republican Tom Foley dropped significantly from his previous numbers, while Dan Malloy made a significant gain. 48 percent of voters chose Malloy, while only 47 percent chose Foley.
In a mid-Oct. poll, 46 percent chose Foley and 42 percent Malloy. There was a noticeable change in position for Foley.
The results for this poll may have been slightly biased due to the party split. 41 percent of voters identified as Democrat, 28 percent as Republican, and 31 percent as a different party.
Both Foley and Malloy achieved a favorability rating of 47 percent. In addition, 30 percent see Foley as an unfavorable candidate and 35 said the same about Malloy.
The majority of voters, 53 percent, believe that Connecticut is worse off than it was four years ago. If either candidate wants to secure a win, they need to convince voters that they can offer meaningful change.
Voter opinion for the major issues was as follows: On government spending, 46 percent chose Foley to Malloy’s 42 percent, for taxes, 47 percent chose Foley to Malloy’s 40 percent, on social issues, 49 percent chose Malloy to Foley’s 38 percent, and for ethics and corruption, 44 percent chose Malloy to Foley’s 38 percent.
Photo credit: Hartford Courant.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/21 – 10/23
- Bob Beauprez – Republican – 49%
- John Hickenlooper – Democrat – 47%
- Other – 3%
- Undecided – 2%
For the first time in a while, a Rasmussen Reports political poll has revealed that the Republican Bob Beauprez has pulled ahead of the Democrat incumbent John Hickenlooper in the tight Colorado Governor race. The poll asked 966 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today.
49 percent of voters stated that they would vote for Beauprez, while 47 percent said Hickenlooper. The results are well within the 3 percent margin of error for the poll, but for nearly a month, Beauprez had been trailing Hickenlooper by several points. He has now taken a lead, a task that he struggled to accomplish in the past.
The party split for the poll was dead even at 32 percent Republican and 32 percent Democrat. The other 36 percent of voters identified with a different party all together.
48 percent of the voters have a favorable opinion of Beauprez. On the other hand, Hickenlooper’s favorability rating is currently 47 percent. The two favorability ratings between the candidates explain the near deadlock in this election.
On major issues, 47 percent of voters trust Beauprez with government spending, while only 43 percent trust Hickenlooper. For taxes, 47 percent chose Beauprez and 42 percent Hickenlooper. On social issues, Hickenlooper tallied 48 percent of the vote to Beauprez’s 41 percent. Lastly, on the issue of government ethics and corruption, the two candidates nearly tied. Hickenlooper’s 42 percent barely beat Beauprez’s 41 percent.
Photo credit: Denver Post.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/20 – 10/21
- Paul Davis – Democrat – 52%
- Sam Brownback – Republican – 45%
- Other – 1%
- Undecided – 2%
Republican incumbent Sam Brownback has once again lost a Rasmussen Reports political poll, analyzing the Kansas Governor race, to his Democrat challenger Paul Davis. The end of October poll, asked 960 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 52 percent of voters chose Davis, while 45 percent chose Brownback.
A mid-September poll suggested that the race was much closer. Davis received 47 percent of the vote to Brownback’s 43 percent.
Only 44 percent of voters see Brownback as a favorable candidate. 53 percent find him unfavorable, and within that statistic, 40 percent find him very unfavorable.
On the other hand, 49 percent of voters see Davis as favorable and only 42 percent see him as unfavorable. The stark difference lies in voter’s opinion of Davis. Only 27 percent found him very unfavorable.
Voters were asked several questions regarding the two candidates and their level of trust in them. 46 percent of voters trust Davis on issues of government spending, while only 43 percent say the same about Brownback. For taxes, Davis received 48 percent of the vote to Brownback’s 42 percent. Davis clobbered Brownback in the social issues vote, registering 48 percent of the vote to his opponent’s 39 percent. Lastly, on the topic of ethics and corruption, 45 percent of voters trust Davis and only 40 percent Brownback.
Even more interesting were the demographics for this poll. 55 percent of voters registered as Republican, 25 percent as Democrat, and 20 percent as an unidentified party. The fact that Davis has a substantial lead in a Republican dominated poll is interesting and suggests that Brownback is loathed amongst the voters in Kansas, and that he likely will fail in his bid for reelection.
Photo credit: Kansas.com.
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 10/16 – 10/24
Georgia Senate / Georgia Governor
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has released a new poll revealing the results for both the Georgia Senate and Georgia Governor elections.
- Nathan Deal – Republican – 46%
- Jason Carter – Democrat – 41%
- Andrew Hunt – Libertarian – 5%
Deal has led the Georgia governor race more often than his opponent Carter. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll has him at a +5, but a similar poll conducted by CNN earlier this week has Carter at a +2.
Deal held the lead in September numerous times, trading with Carter in the odd poll. In early September, Deal was a +1 in several polls, by the middle of the month, Insider Advantage rated him at a +4, and at the end of the month, Rasmussen Reports had him at +6.
- David Perdue – Republican – 44%
- Michelle Nunn – Democrat – 42%
- Amanda Swafford – Libertarian – 6%
Data for both polls was gathered by Abt SRBI of New York. 1,170 Georgians were asked who they would vote for in both the Georgia Senate and Georgia Governor elections. The margin of error was calculated at 3.6 percent.
For most of October, the majority of the Georgian Senate polls favored Nunn. Survey USA had her at a +2, WRBL at a +1, Insider Advantage at a +2, and a CNN poll had her at a +3.
In September, Purdue had a commanding lead. An Insider Advantage poll pegged him at a +10, Rasmussen Reports at a +5, and various other polls had him in the lead.
Photo credit: Georgia Grad Affairs, Breitbart, IVN.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/20 – 10/22
- Bruce Rauner – Republican – 48%
- Pat Quinn – Democrat – 47%
- Other – 2%
- Undecided – 4%
Splitting hairs is the best way to describe the Illinois Governor election. Rasmussen Reports issued a new political poll showing how close this race is. The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. Bruce Rauner, the Republican candidate, secured 48 percent of the votes, while his Democrat challenger, Pat Quinn, had 47 percent. 2 percent of voters liked a different candidate, and 4 percent were undecided.
In July, Rauner had 44 percent of the vote to Quinn’s 39 percent, while in late September, 42 percent liked Rauner, and 44 percent Quinn. Rauner has blown the lead down the stretch and this election is now a toss-up.
Rauner’s favorability rating was respectable. He scored 54 percent of the vote, while his opponent only had a favorability rating of 47 percent. Both candidates are recognizable in the eyes of the voters.
In terms of trust and other related questions. 46 percent of voters trust Rauner to deal with government spending, while only 40 percent say the same about Quinn.
On the issue of taxes, 45 percent trust Rauner and only 40 percent Quinn.
For social issues, Quinn came out ahead with 45 percent of the vote to Rauner’s 39 percent.
Lastly, when it comes to government ethics and corruption, 44 percent believe that Rauner is the better candidate to Quinn’s 36 percent.
The party split for this poll was 31 percent Republican, 42 percent Democrat, and 26 percent other. Still, the Republican candidate secured more votes in a poll that should have been dominated by the Democrats.
Photo credit: Chicago Tribune.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/20 – 10/21
- Mary Burke – Democrat – 49%
- Scott Walker – Republican – 48%
- Other – 1%
- Undecided – 2%
A new Rasmussen Report’s poll has revealed how close the race for the Wisconsin Governor is. The poll asked 973 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 49 percent of voters selected the Democrat Mary Burke, while 48 percent chose the Republican Scott Walker.
50 percent of voters see Walker as a favorable candidate and 51 percent say the same about Burke. Both candidates are highly recognizable in the eyes of the voters.
Walker’s approval ratings were 49 percent. However, it is worth noting that his disapproval rating was 48 percent, and 40 percent of that total was voters who strongly disapproved of him.
Voters were conflicted on the status of Wisconsin. 44 percent believe that the state is better off than four years ago, while 46 percent believe that it is in worse shape.
When analyzing the campaign of the two challengers, 35 percent say that it has been more negative than previous elections, while 54 percent say that it is the same as previous years.
In terms of government spending, 47 percent prefer Walker and 46 percent Burke. Both candidates tied at 47 percent over the issue of taxation. For social issues, 50 percent chose Burke and only 42 percent Walker. Lastly, 48 percent trust Burke for issues of ethics and corruption to Walker’s 42 percent.
Photo credit: Capital Newspapers Archives.
Magellan, 10/13 – 10/14
- Tom Wolf – Democrat – 49%
- Tom Corbett – Republican – 42%
- Undecided – 9%
The Republicans are gaining momentum in the Pennsylvania Governor race. Democrat Tom Wolf has maintained a steady lead throughout the campaign, but his opponent, Tom Corbett is starting to catch up after trailing by 12 percent in July. A Magellan poll asked 1,131 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today.
49 percent of voters chose Wolf, while 42 percent chose Corbett. In July, 50 percent chose Wolf and 38 percent Corbett. In September, 49 percent voted for Wolf and 40 percent Corbett.
Most of Corbett’s gains have resulted from his ability to turn undecided voters into Republican voters. He has increased the scope of his Republican voters from 64 percent in July to 73 percent in the most recent poll. These statistical gains have helped him close the gap and pose a challenge to Wolf’s campaign.
Wolf has a favorability rating of 46, while Corbett has a 39. However, Corbett has improved his favorability rating significantly. In May, it was pegged at 20, in July, 32, and in September, 33.
Other polls show Wolf with a commanding lead. A Franklin & Marshall poll had the split at 57 percent for Wolf and 37 percent for Corbett. 50 percent of voters in a CBS News poll chose Wolf, while only 41 percent chose Corbett.
The two candidates debated on October 8. Corbett defended voter ID laws as a safeguard for the system, denounced the legalization of marijuana by calling the drug a “gateway drug.” and stated his support for the death penalty, a point that Wolf specifically disagreed with.
Photo credit: AP / Rodney Johnson.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/13 – 10/15
- Asa Hutchinson – Republican – 49%
- Mike Ross – Democrat – 47%
- Other – 1%
- Undecided – 3%
The Democrat Mike Ross has caught up to his Republican opponent Asa Hutchinson in the Arkansas Governor race. The results of the latest Rasmussen Reports poll have reclassified this election as a toss-up. The poll asked 940 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 48 percent chose Hutchinson and 45 percent chose Ross.
Ross has made significant advances since the previous poll, which pegged him at 42 percent and Hutchinson at 46 percent.
Voters also have a favorable opinion of Hutchinson. In fact, 58 percent of voters believe that he is a favorable candidate, while 54 percent say the same about Ross.
On the topic of major issues, 47 percent of voters trust Hutchinson with government spending to Ross’ 39 percent. For taxes, 47 percent support Hutchinson to Ross’ 40 percent. Hutchinson also leads on the topic of social issues. He secured 46 percent of the vote, while Ross had 40 percent. Finally, voters also trust Hutchinson when it comes to government ethics and corruption. 43 percent of voters believe that he is reliable, ethical and not corrupt, while 40 percent say the same about Ross.
In the most recent debate, the two candidates had vastly different views on voter ID laws. Ross took the classical Democrat stance and attacked voter ID laws, stating, that there is no evidence of voter fraud and that they aren’t needed. Hutchinson followed the party line as well, saying that voter ID laws guarantee the integrity of the voting process.
Photo credit: Arkansas News.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/8 – 10/12
- Bill Walker – Independent – 50%
- Sean Parnell – Republican – 41%
- Other – 2%
- Undecided – 7%
The independent candidate Bill Walker has increased his lead over his Republican opponent Sean Parnell in the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll. The poll asked 700 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 50 percent of the voters chose Walker, while 41 percent chose Parnell. In a poll conducted in September, 47 percent chose Walker and 42 percent Parnell.
Walker has increased his lead at an important moment. As the election draws closer, he is sitting in a comfortable spot and it looks like he should be able to secure a win.
56 percent of voters believe that Walker is a favorable candidate, while 50 percent say the same about Parnell. Parnell has a more recognizable name than Walker as well. In fact, only 1 percent of voters have never heard of Parnell, while 5 percent have never heard of Walker.
46 percent of voters trust Walker to handle government spending to Parnell’s 36 percent. For taxes, Walker was also more favorable as he secured 43 percent of the vote. On social issues, he barely edged out Parnell with 42 percent of the vote, and for ethics and corruption, he beat out Parnell 45 percent to 33 percent.
The two candidates engaged in a debate on Tuesday, Walker focused on deficits and criticized his opponent for not trimming the debt while he was in office.
“We need to look across the board, not just in one particular area,” he said.
Parnell attacked his opponent saying that if Walker had held office, the deficit would have been much larger than it is.
In the end, spending, energy, and leadership were the major issues of the debate that the two candidates focused on.
Photo credit: Radio Kenai.