The latest poll by Quinnipiac University has revealed the U.S. Senate outcomes in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. The Republicans won in Pennsylvania, split Ohio, and lost to the Democrats in Florida.
- Pat Toomey 49% – Joe Sestak 34%
- Pat Toomey 51% – Katie McGinty 31%
- Rob Portman 43% – Ted Strickland 46%
- Rob Portman 49% – P.G. Sittenfeld 27%
- Patrick Murphy 37% – Carlos Lopez-Cantera 29%
- Patrick Murphy 37% – Ron DeSantis 30%
- Alan Grayson 35% – Carlos Lopez-Cantera 32%
- Alan Grayson 35% – Ron DeSantis 31%
The Democrats came out ahead, winning the majority of the polls. Pat Toomey decisively won Pennsylvania, with a 15 and 20 point advantage over both of the Democrats.
In Ohio, the two parties split the poll. The Republicans Rob Portman managed to beat P.G. Sittenfeld by a large margin, but lost to Ted Strickland.
Finally, the Democrats cleaned up in Florida, winning every single matchup. Both Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson beat Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Ron DeSantis. Murphy convincingly beat the two Republican candidates, while Grayson’s margin of victory was much smaller.
Photo credit: The Next Web.
Vox Populi, 11/16-11/17
- Cassidy: 53
- Landrieu: 42
Gravis Marketing, 11/12-11/14
- Cassidy: 59
- Landrieu: 38
The tough beats aren’t over just yet for the Democrats as they stand to lose yet another seat to the GOP.
Two new polls have Republican challenger Bill Cassidy leading Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu by double-digits in Louisiana’s run-off election scheduled for December 6.
A new Vox Populi poll, conducted between November 16 and November 17, sampling 761 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.6 percent, has Cassidy leading Landrieu by 11 points, a 53-42 margin.
Among those, just 33 percent of respondents said they are “definitely” voting for Landrieu while 9 percent say they’re leaning toward Landrieu. On the flip side, 45 percent of respondents said they’re “definitely” voting for Cassidy while another 8 percent said they’re leaning toward the Republican.
An earlier Gravis Marketing poll, conducted between November 12 and November 14, sampling 643 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.0 percent, suggests that it could be even worse than that for Landrieu as it shows Cassidy leading by a whopping 21 percent, a 59-38 margin.
That poll found that 61 percent of likely voters disapprove of President Obama though incredibly their sample size was made up of 44 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 20 percent independents.
Looks like another tough loss for the Democrats as they turn the page and look to 2016 when the pendulum could very well swing the other way.
- Cassidy (R): 50
- Landrieu (D): 45
- Cassidy (R): 48
- Landrieu (D): 41
As expected, no candidate received more than 50 percent of the vote in Louisiana’s open primary, thus triggering a run-off election between the top two vote-getters.
On December 6, incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu will go head-to-head with Republican Bill Cassidy to determine the state’s senate seat.
Landrieu led the open primary with 42 percent of the vote while Cassidy received 41 percent and fellow Republican Rob Maness received 14 percent.
With Maness out of the race, the scales have tipped heavily into Cassidy’s favor.
Aside from getting just 42 percent of the vote compared to 55 percent for the top two Republicans, head-to-head polls show Landrieu is in serious trouble as the run-off approaches.
An NBC News/Marist poll has Cassidy leading by 5 percent, a USA Today/Suffolk poll has Cassidy leading by 7, and a CBS News/New York Times poll has Cassidy up by 4.
While that in itself is a solid lead, we also saw on Tuesday just how much polls were skewed toward Democrats.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the average poll was skewed 4 percent toward Democrats, the largest Democratic bias recorded since 1990. Polling bias obviously didn’t help as the Democrats were slaughtered on election night, though part of the bias may have been related to a low voter turnout among Democrats.
This means that Cassidy is likely even more ahead of Landrieu, especially given the 55 percent of the vote the two GOPers received in the open primary. Landrieu also has just a 44 percent favorable rating in her state while 50 percent of Louisiana residents have an unfavorable view of the three-term senator.
Final 2014 Senate Polls Update and Predictions: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky
With Election Day just hours away, let’s take a look at how all of the key swing races are shaping up and what we can expect the Senate to look like come January.
In New Hampshire, we are seeing a slew of new polls with very different results so we have to look at the most reliable pollsters. CNN/Opinion Research have Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican Scott Brown by 2, CBS/New York Times have her leading by 5, and New England College has Scott Brown leading by 1. RealClearPolitics has Shaheen leading by a point on average and that appears to be the case heading into Tuesday. Look for New Hampshire to have a very tight race, but Shaheen remains a very slight favorite.
In Iowa, Quinnipiac shows a 47-47 tie between Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley while CNN/Opinion Research have Ernst up by 2 and YouGov has Braley up by 1. RCP has Ernst leading Braley but a little over one point on average and she appears to have a very slight lead heading into Election Day.
The race in Colorado has gotten closer as a new Quinnipiac poll has Republican Cory Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall by 2 percent, as does Survey USA. Gardner has led all but one poll over the last month and is the slight favorite to win Colorado for the GOP.
In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan appears to have a slight 2-3 point lead over Republican Thom Tillis according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a YouGov poll, and a PPP poll. NBC News and Survey USA have the race tied. According to RCP, Hagan has a very slight lead over Tillis but is currently a slight favorite to hold on to her job.
In Georgia, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn by 3 percent in a new Survey USA poll, 4 percent in an NBC News poll, and 2 percent in a YouGov poll. That sounds about right and the Republican is a slight favorite to win. One thing to watch, however, is that if Perdue fails to win 50 percent of the vote, there will be a run-off election between the two without Libertarian Amanda Swafford on the ballot.
In Alaska, it doesn’t look good for incumbent Democrat Mark Begich who trails Republican Dan Sullivan by 4 percent in a new CBS News/NY Times poll and 6 points in a new CNN/Opinion Research survey. Sullivan is the odds-on favorite to win Alaska back for the GOP.
In Louisiana, Democrat Mary Landrieu continues to lead Tuesday’s open primary against Republican David Cassidy and fellow Republican Rob Maness but that’s a moot point. Landrieu and Cassidy will face off in a runoff on December 6 and Cassidy leads Landrieu by 5 percent in an NBC News/Marist poll and 4 percent in a CBS News/NY Times poll and is the odds-on favorite to win Louisiana for the GOP.
Kentucky was close for a while but that’s no longer the case. A new NBC News/Marist poll has incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democrat Alison Grimes by 9 percent while a new PPP poll has McConnell up by 8. Don’t look for Kentucky to turn blue on Tuesday.
The Kansas race has drawn closer and a new Survey USA poll has independent Greg Orman leading Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent while an NBC News poll has him up by 1. Orman appears to be a very, very slight favorite and says he will caucus with whichever party is in control of the Senate.
In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton looks to be the overwhelming favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton leads Pryor by 8 points in a new PPP poll and 7 percent in a new Rasmussen poll.
The Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to their seats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The Republicans are likely to win Arkansas, Georgia, Alaska, Kentucky, Louisiana, Colorado, and slightly favored to win Iowa.
Greg Orman is slightly favored to win Kansas and would likely caucus with the Republicans, assuming they win the majority.
Congressional Control: Voters Believe the Republicans Are Poised for Big Gains in This Year’s Elections
Rasmussen Reports, 10/29 – 10/30
A new Rasmussen Reports poll gauged voter opinion on who they believe will control the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate following this year’s elections.
How likely is that Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives this November?
- Very likely – 12%
- Somewhat likely – 22%
- Not very likely – 26%
- Not at all likely – 25%
- Undecided – 14%
Even though most of the failures attributed to the current Congress can be blamed on the Republicans, both parties suffer from petty partisan politics that have led to a massive breakdown of relations in Congress and its inability to accomplish anything of value. It is not surprising that the majority of voters, 51 percent, believe that the Democrats will concede even more control of the House of Representatives to their opponents.
How likely is that Republicans will win a majority in the Senate this November?
- Very likely – 22%
- Somewhat likely – 40%
- Not very likely – 20%
- Not at all likely – 4%
- Undecided – 15%
The results of this question are even less surprising. The Democrats currently control the U.S. Senate with 53 seats to the Republican’s 45. However, the lack of any meaningful legislation might convince voters to try a Republican Senate, even if it has no potential to benefit them at all. The average voter is fed up of the current political climate.
If Democrats win control of Congress, will there be a noticeable change in the lives of most Americans?
- Yes – 51%
- No – 32%
- Undecided – 17%
Voters believe the Democrats are the better party, but they demonstrate a willingness to vote Republican, it’s paradoxical. Both parties have their specific platforms, but the Democrats tend to offer a neutral platform for the majority, while the Republicans focus on policies that benefit the minority of the population.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/27 – 10/30
- Dan Sullivan – Republican – 47%
- Mark Begich – Democrat – 42%
- Other – 5%
- Undecided – 6%
The latest political poll for the Alaskan Senate election has been released by Rasmussen Reports. The poll asked 887 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. 47 percent of voters said that they would vote for the Republican Dan Sullivan, while 42 percent chose the Democrat Mark Begich. In addition, 5 percent of voters liked a different candidate and 6 percent were undecided.
An Oct. 8-12 poll had the Democrats in a more favorable position. In that poll, Sullivan led with 48 percent of the vote to Begich’s 45 percent.
The demographics for this poll were standard for Alaska. Gender was split at an even 50 percent. 35 percent of voters identified as Republican, 17 percent as Democrat, and 48 percent as a different party. 81 percent of voters were white. The majority of voters, 53 percent, were aged 40-64.
In terms of favorability, 47 percent of voters see Begich as a favorable candidate. However, 50 percent see him as unfavorable, and amongst that number, 37 percent see him as very unfavorable.
On the other hand, 50 percent of voters see Sullivan as a favorable candidate, while only 47 percent see him as unfavorable. 37 percent of voters saw him as a very unfavorable candidate.
Only 18 percent of voters admitted that they had already voted, while 82 percent said that they did not. Also, 91 percent said that they were certain to vote.
Photo credit: KTUU.
- Ernst (R): 45
- Braley (D): 45
Kentucky: Courier-Journal/Survey USA
- McConnell (R): 48
- Grimes (D): 43
- Gardner (R): 46
- Udall (D): 39
North Carolina: Rasmussen
- Hagan (D): 47
- Tillis (R): 46
- Nunn (D): 47
- Perdue (R): 47
- Swafford (L): 3
With the elections just days away, polls out of the most competitive states in the country are seemingly changing every day. Luckily, most voters have made up their mind by now and poll results are growing increasingly closer to what is likely to be the final tally. Let’s take a look at how some of the tightest senate races are shaping up heading into election week.
Iowa figures to be one of the closest races in the country, possibly to the point where we don’t even know the winner on election night. A new Rasmussen poll has Republican Joni Ernst up by 1, a Loras College poll has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1, and a new Reuters poll has the race dead even.
According to RealClearPolitics, Ernst leads Braley by an average of 46.5-45.3 and is a slight favorite to win.
In Kentucky, Republican Mitch McConnell is expected to win but not by a whole lot. McConnell leads Democrat Alison Grimes by 5 percent in a new Courier-Journal poll and 6 percent in a new CBS News/New York Times poll.
In Colorado, Republican Cory Gardner is also a likely favorite to unseat Democratic incumbent Mark Udall. A new Quinnipiac poll has Gardner up by 7, a Rasmussen poll has him up by 6, and RCP has him leading by an average of 47-43.
North Carolina is another state that is going to be very, very tight. Three of the last eight polls released this week have the race dead even while a Rasmussen poll, CBS News poll, Survey USA poll, and PPP poll have Democrat Kay Hagan leading Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 1-3 percent.
Hagan remains the slight favorite but certainly a very vulnerable one.
Georgia is one state to watch. We have seen Democrat Michelle Nunn make some headway of late as she’s attacked Republican David Perdue’s business practices, notably his overseas outsourcing and a pay discrimination lawsuit he was hit with while heading up Dollar General. A new WSB-TV poll has Perdue and Nunn tied with 47 percent of the vote while Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is polling at 3 percent.
If neither candidate can get 50 percent plus one vote, the two will face each other in a run-off with Swafford out of the race.
- Ernst (R): 49
- Braley (D): 45
Georgia: Survey USA
- Perdue (R): 48
- Nunn (D): 45
- Swafford (L): 3
Kansas: NBC News/Marist
- Orman (I): 44
- Roberts (R): 42
Michigan: Mitchell Research
- Peters (D): 52
- Land (R): 38
Polls are being released daily, sometimes even more frequently, in the states with the tightest senate races and we are getting a pretty good idea of who stands where. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers from four of the most competitive races in the nation.
In Iowa, we are seeing some very contradictory poll results as a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters has Republican Joni Ernst up by 4 while a Loras College poll of likely voters has Democrat Bruce Braley up by 1. RealClearPolitics has Ernst leading by an average margin of 47-45. According to FiveThirtyEight, Ernst has a 67 percent chance of winning the race while Braley has a 33 percent chance.
In Georgia, three new polls have Republican David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn by 2-3 percent with Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford pulling in 3-4 percent. If no candidate gets 50 percent plus one vote there will be a runoff election in January. A runoff race would definitely change things but right now FiveThirtyEight gives both Nunn and Perdue a 50-50 chance at winning, the only such race in the country.
In Kansas, independent candidate Greg Orman leads Republican incumbent Pat Roberts by 2 percent in a new Survey USA poll and by 1 percent in a new NBC News/Marist poll. FiveThirtyEight gives Orman a 51 percent chance to defeat the Republican.
In Michigan, in a race that was separated by 2-3 percent just two months ago, Democrat Gary Peters has absolutely blown open his lead, leading Republican Terri Lynn Land by 14 percent in the latest Mitchell Research poll and 15 percent in the latest Detroit News poll. According to FiveThirtyEight, Peters has a 98 percent chance to win this race.
North Carolina: NBC News/Marist
- Hagan (D): 43
- Tillis (R): 43
- Haugh (L): 7
- Gardner (R): 51
- Udall (D): 45
- McConnell (R): 52
- Grimes (D): 44
Iowa: NBC News/Marist
- Ernst (R): 49
- Braley (D): 46
- Cotton (R): 47
- Pryor (D): 44
With Election Day just a week away, we are now in crunch time. This week, voters all around the country will have to endure a flurry of negative campaign ads everywhere they look as candidates make one last push to win over undecided voters. Let’s take a look at who’s pulling ahead and who needs all the help they can get in the final week of a long campaign.
In North Carolina, we have mostly been tracking head-to-head polls between incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis. A new NBC News poll and a HighPoint/Survey USA poll, however, suggest that libertarian candidate Sean Haugh could pull in 5-7 percent of the vote which certainly has big ramifications in this close race. Both polls have Hagan and Tillis tied while two earlier CBS News/NY Times and PPP polls have Hagan up by 3. Hagan remains a very slight favorite in this one.
In Colorado, incumbent Democrat Mark Udall has fallen behind badly after leading the race for most of the year. Udall led nearly every poll out of the state until September. Since September, Republican Cory Gardner has led 14 of the last 16 polls and RealClearPolitics has Gardner up by an average of 47-44. A new Rasmussen poll has Gardner leading by 6.
In Kentucky, Democrat Alison Grimes has flirted with the lead but Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has proven too well-funded and well-known. McConnell leads Grimes by an average of 46-42, according to RCP, and leads Grimes by 8 percent in the latest Rasmussen poll.
The race in Iowa remains tight but Republican Joni Ernst has certainly established herself as a slight favorite over Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley has not led any poll since September and the latest NBC News poll has Ernst up by 3 percent. RCP has Ernst up by an average of 47-45.
In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton appears to be headed for a win over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Cotton has led all but two polls since May and RCP has him up by an average of 47-42. The latest Rasmussen poll has Cotton leading by 3 percent while other polls have him leading by as much as 7-8 points.
Rasmussen Reports, 10/20 – 10/22
- Gary Peters – Democrat – 51%
- Terri Lynn – Republican – 42%
- Other – 3%
- Undecided – 4%
We have an update in the Michigan Senate election. According to the latest Rasmussen Reports political poll, the Democrat Gary Peters is enjoying a commanding lead over the Republican Terri Lynn. The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who they would vote for if an election were to occur today. The margin of error for this poll was 3 percent.
The demographics for this poll were fairly even. 30 percent of voters registered as Republican, 36 percent as Democrat, and 34 percent as an unidentified party.
51 percent of voters chose Peters, while only 42 percent chose Lynn. The results of this poll are starkly different than a mid-September poll which had Peters at 41 percent and Land at 39 percent.
45 percent of voters see Land as a favorable candidate. On the other hand, 52 percent view Peters as a favorable candidate. The difference isn’t substantial, but it demonstrates that voters see Peters in a positive light.
Lynn’s decline in the polls is likely due to the unattractiveness of the Republican platform. Peters is against the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, a choice that allows corporations and individuals to infinitely fund political campaigns, while Land supports it.
Lynn doesn’t support increasing the minimum wage to $10.10, Peters does.
On the issue of climate change, Peters believes that humans impact the climate, while Lynn has refused to make a notable statement regarding the issue.
Lynn is against same-sex marriage and Peters supports it.
Both candidates follow the party line, for the most part, and due to this, Lynn is appearing as an unattractive candidate, in a state that is in desperate need of social policy.
Photo credit: WXYZ.